Full Archive · Page 33

Research archive, page 33

Browse entries 769–792 of 1704. Return to the first page to search and filter the complete collection.

METR March 20, 2026 analysis

Time-horizon estimates: test sensitivity to tasks, curve fits and human timing

METR’s March analysis shows how statistical choices affect estimates of the task duration at which agents achieve a specified success rate. It examines a regularization correction, alternative success curves, public-task inclusion and noise in human completion-time estimates. Reasonable alternatives often move the point estimates within already wide confidence intervals.

METR March 3, 2026 analysis

Playable agent demos need deeper inspection and explicit acceptance criteria

A METR researcher tested Opus 4.6 on simplified terminal reimplementations of two existing games. Initial playthroughs found recognizable gameplay alongside missing or broken mechanics, without a predefined scoring rubric. A July follow-up uncovered additional problems that the original inspection missed. The tasks benefited from documented rules and reduced scope, and more complete versions failed on initial attempts.

METR January 29, 2026 analysis

Time Horizon 1.1: version task composition and scaffolding when comparing capability trends

METR’s January 2026 update expands its time-horizon suite from 170 to 228 tasks, repairs or removes problematic tasks, and moves evaluation infrastructure from Vivaria to Inspect. Re-estimated model results generally remain within earlier confidence intervals, but task composition changes the fitted recent trend. More long tasks improve coverage, yet only five of the 31 tasks estimated at eight hours or more have measured human baselines.

METR January 22, 2026 analysis

Read time horizons as uncertain task-distribution estimates, not delegation guarantees

A METR researcher clarifies that a 50% time horizon relates success to the human labor required for sampled tasks; it is neither agent runtime nor a guarantee that shorter work is safe to delegate. Domain choice, task selection, human timing conventions and curve fitting can materially affect estimates. Sparse long tasks and benchmark saturation widen uncertainty.

METR August 13, 2025 analysis

Passing repository tests did not establish that AI patches were mergeable

METR’s August 2025 follow-up contrasts algorithmic scoring with human review of repository work. It evaluated 18 tasks drawn from two projects using Claude 3.7 Sonnet and a basic agent scaffold. Automated scoring credited some solutions, while none of the 15 manually assessed submissions met the study’s holistic mergeability standard. Missing documentation, inadequate tests and other maintenance requirements help explain the gap.