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METR · March 19, 2026

Use tabletop simulations to find bottlenecks before expanding agent autonomy

analysis AI EngineeringModel Evaluation
Why it matters

Three METR staff spent two hours simulating how their research organization might work with agents capable of roughly 200-hour tasks. The exercise advanced through two hypothetical workdays and exposed choices about prioritization, delegation, context and review. Participants used present-day research needs but assumed future agent capabilities. The account is a planning exercise for identifying organizational constraints, not an experiment measuring productivity or evidence that such agents are available.

My takeaway: Simulate a few real projects with explicit capability, reliability and budget assumptions. Record who sets priorities, supplies context, approves actions and reviews outputs. Turn the resulting bottlenecks into preparation tasks, while keeping hypothetical outcomes separate from measured capability or delivery forecasts.
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